Average global temperatures have been going up since the 1910s and despite falling occasionally keep going up by the extreme amount of nearly a degree Celsius.
(Note that this means that in some places average temperatures are now two degrees higher than 1910 and in some places they are one degree lower than in 1910.)
Since 2002 average temperatures have been falling by 0.2 degrees. In 2006 Al Gore realesed the movie "An Inconvenient Truth" just in time to observe the temperature falling further reaching nearly the level of 1990. This inconvenient truth was not mentioned in the movie.
The truth is, we don't know what's causing global warming. Did humanity cause the rise in temperature? Did Al Gore's movie cause the fall in temperature? I don't know.
What I do know, however, is how invested many people are in the absolute truth of the dogma that humanity is causing this temperature change and that humanity can influence it.
So here's my prediction:
1. If the current trend of the average temperature going down continues, global-warming enthusiasts will claim that the Kyoto treaty, which allows India and China to pollute as much as they can, has saved the planet.
2. If the current trend of the average temperature going down does not continue, global-warming enthusiasts will claim that the Kyoto treaty was not enough or that it would have been enough if only the US had signed it (and broken it like all the other parties to it).
On my side, I will promise the following:
Should it ever turn out to be true that Chinese and Indian CO2 does not influence global warming while European and American CO2 does, I will admit that I was totally wrong about the Kyoto treaty.