I'm a global warming skeptic. That doesn't mean I don't believe it's happening. It doesn't mean that I don't think humans could possibly cause it.
Being a skeptic is a fine thing, there's much pseudoscience in our culture to be skeptical about. A skeptic must first consider the source of various claims and whether or not the claimers have anything to gain from its promotion as the beginning of any skeptical analysis. Then a thorough examination of the claim itself along with consideration given to possible motivations of why someone would want to deny said claims. Also is this claim being made by an individual or a group? If you new how hard it was to get scientist to agree on anything this would be a big consideration.
The scientific method is the most efficient way to get to the truth ever devised by man. Scientist do a far better job of policing themselves than any other section of society, however they're still far from beyond corruption and agenda driven methods but these will always be weeded out eventually. What you call "grossly exaggerated" was simply the margin of error freely admitted by the scientist who compiled the predictive model. Scientist make these predictions all the time with the information they have however it's in the reporting of these predictions that sometimes their uncertainty gets understated or ommited by others that may have an agenda.
A skeptic basing their skepticism of new predictions based on past predictions is illogical. A prediction is only as good as its last one. The more information we they have the less margin of error there is in the model. At some point that margin of error becomes so low as the prediction is considered statistically true.
Lets say sometime soon physicist at the LHC announce that they have found the higgs boson particle. Do you accept their claim or are you skeptical saying that because they feared the bad economy would cause a funding cut they got together and decided to perpetrate a hoax knowing full well that eventually they would be found out but in the meantime they'd still have a job? No probably not, but it would still be possible that an error was made that no one caught but an organized conspiracie would be highly unlikely. Unless of course you had your own reasoning for not wanting this particle to be found then any good skeptic would have to be skeptical of their own motivations.